FROSTY FUTURES FEB. 27, 2003

TECH DATA FOR FRIDAY 2/28/03

DOW R=7930; 8040; 8080. S=7830; 7790; 7750.

SPX R=843; 845; 848. S=831; 826; 819.

NDX R=1002; 1017; 1020. S=984; 976; 970; 958.

MAR TBOND R=11512; 11520. S=11420; 11404; 11328.

APR GOLD R=351; 358; 361. S=345; 342; 340.

MAY SILVER R=463; 469; 474. S=456; 454; 449.

MAY CRUDE R=3550; 3600; 3660. S=3470; 3440; 3380; 3340.

MAR DOLLAR R=100.30; 100.50; 100.75. S=99.50; 99.25; 98.90.

MAY BEANS R=585; 588; 592. S=578; 574; 570.

MAY WHEAT R=316; 320; 328. S=309; 306; 295.

SUBSCRIBERS RECEIVE TECH DATA DAILY.

STOCK INDICES

All indexes remain within the same trading range they have been in for the last five weeks. Nobody knows crap, so stay with the technicals.

INTEREST RATES

Continually lower rates, particularly on the long bond, indicate that speculators think recession and safety are more magnetic than inflation and money supply. Therefore the markets gravitate in that direction. But the operative word is "think." Keep that in mind when making decisions.

CURRENCY

The Dollar is in the same trading range formation the stock indexes are in.

ENERGY

Crude hit 40.00 today and backed off three-bucks. I expect the bear spreads to be, once again, favored by traders. Natural gas is the strongest argument in favor of regulation I have ever witnessed. There is a possibility of a strong blow off rally in all energy contracts as winter ends and stocks, supposedly, tighten. Option premiums are very rich so look for ways to squeeze some juice out of them without losing your home.

METALS

Neither silver nor gold could hold gains. Gold was sold by some banks, they think this is high. Maybe it is, but I think there is a lot more upside to go with the problems Bush is having legitimizing the arguments he is proffering the world. Frankly, I think the guy is a one-term phenom whether we go to war or not. If the Dem’s were smart they would take off the kid gloves now and fight like hell to see who is the strongest, meanest, toughest, smartest, best candidate they can put up and then all of them get behind the winner and kick the republicans and the WTO right into the Atlantic Ocean. And tear down this pseudo-aristocracy we have built in the USA. Enough is enough.

Sub-Summary

CATTLE

The live cattle contracts tried to fill the gap left by the roll from month to month but have, apparently, failed in the attempt. If the April contract were to break 7500 I would think that would be the death knell for the complex. Feeders are weak and until wanted price should continue to decline.

GRAIN

Holy Moly Batman, I said if beans didn’t falter wheat should have bottomed out. Well I can’t say beans really faltered (anybody know what falter means?) but I sure as hell didn’t expect wheat to do this. I just bought a boat and had every intention of paying for it in the wheat market. I think somebody is playing fast and loose with wheat supply and demand numbers. More lies, damn lies and statistics. But you can’t fight the tape.

SOFTS

Cocoa found some support and you can trade if you are close by. If you like fireworks call me for some personal attention or do it on your own. But be disciplined. The coffee market is slipping fast so before you know it they will have it oversold. As we slip into our spring the Colombians will be slipping into their fall. You should check the weather in the mountains once a week or so to get accustomed as the temperature drops as the season progresses. Needless to say, check the chart patterns as you go along. The big island reversal pattern on May sugar is a good sign the bears will control the sugar market for awhile. Establish your line of discipline and trade the trend. By the looks of cotton either the crop somewhere is short or somebody thinks there are going to be lots of cotton uniforms made. If your software has the capability, look at the July-Dec spreads. Keep sitting on your May OJ calls. If your March calls expired worthless you either paid nothing for them or very little (if you were trading with me). If you don’t have any May calls, get some. Don’t worry about it. It’s just a bet with the odds in your favor. The lumber market did a good job of forecasting the drop (surprising all the experts) in new home sales last month. Seasonally adjusted or not the lumber pit knew there was something rotten in Denmark.

Bless you all.