FROSTY FUTURES MARCH 13, 2003

TECH DATA FOR FRIDAY MARCH 14.

DOW R=7810; 7955; 8125. S=7730; 7680; 7610.

SPX R=830; 838; 848. S=822; 817; 811; 804.

NDX R=1020; 1040; 1070. S=1008; 1002; 992; 982.

JUN TBOND R=11422; 11504. S=11322; 11308; 11224.

JUN GOLD R=338; 343; 346. S=334; 331; 325.

MAY SILVER R=458; 463; 470. S=454; 450; 448; 443.

MAY CRUDE R=3550; 3640. S=3400; 3350; 3285.

JUN DOLLAR R=100.35; 11.55; 11.80. S=99.70; 99.40; 98.75.

MAY BEANS R=579; 584. S=572; 568; 565.

MAY WHEAT R=305; 313; 320. S=298; 294; 289.

INDICES

Astute observers could feel the volatility band tighten this week and the last two days gave testimony to the accuracy of the foresight. But, once again, what have I done for you lately? Shorts are in need of a diaper change. I listened to Cramer just a few minutes ago (of Kudlow and Cramer, not Seinfeld’s Cramer) say that he didn’t think the lows were in. He "wanted" to see the old October lows taken out, etc. I have inferred from his past rantings that he is a short, and one who now needs his diaper changed. Don’t believe a word that guy spits. I bring your attention to my old favorite, GE common. Go to your daily chart and look at the low from last October and you will see a classic key reversal bottom. Next bring your eyes to the right and look at the most recent lows. A perfect double bottom formation presaged the current rally. Unless the market reverses course now, and takes out GE’s support at 23.50, the stock market has bottomed PERIOD!

INTEREST RATES

If the above supposition is correct, rates go higher.

CURRENCY

If the above supposition is correct Treasury and trade will manage the Dollar. You must follow the techs every day.

METALS

Gold may wind up testing the 320 area, plus or minus 10-15 bucks. Don’t get bearish, because the Treasury has been pumping liquidity into the market and that is going to show up as inflation before long. Trade the technicals or feed your accounts as you wait it out. Silver will kick your butts if you go to sleep at the wheel. Copper will test the 100-day MA near 7400, so watch what happens in that area.

ENERGY

May crude may test 3350 tomorrow (Friday) and if it does, or better yet, goes through it, get long. If the market can’t rally to close above 3450, dump it. You might extend that into next week, but I wouldn’t.

GRAIN

Corn is in a neutral position. Beans are in a positive mode, based upon what I don’t know. Resistance is 584 May and support is 566. Wheat basis May needs a close over 310 to get going. Will it happen? Wait and see. At this price level try buying the futures rather than options, and USE STOPS.

SOFTS

Cocoa is leaning into a bear configuration. The current flag formation should resolve itself into a decline, but it’s a rebel’s puppet. Coffee will probably fall into the summer (South America’s winter) absent some damaging weather. A good target for July sugar is the gap at 660. Either the warmongers got all the sugar they needed or new supplies sprang up from somewhere. It’s headed south. The military/Industrial complex must need cotton. I can’t imagine Harriet Housewife buying new cotton goods for her unemployed self or husband and kids. Don’t buy it, at least I don’t buy it. If you don’t have any May or July OJ calls, get some. They are cheap and nobody but me believes OJ is going to go higher. Here is one you never heard from me before. Buy a July lumber 260 call and sell a July 290. Ten dollars in movement is $1100 in money. Try to do the spread for less than $800. That makes it almost 1:4 risk/reward.

CONTACT ME: williamfrost@comcast.net or call 800 825 0109, code 04 or call 615 331 8567.

Trading futures is for individuals willing to accept greater risk for the opportunity of greater reward. Only speculative capital should be used. Information provided is garnered from sources believed reliable but no independent verification has been made, therefore no guarantees as to accuracy of data is implied. Ideas and suggestions are the opinion of the writer and are subject to change at any time. Nothing contained herein is to be construed to be a solicitation to trade futures or options. Hedgers should have a defined plan.