FROSTY FUTURES MARCH 27, 2003

TECH DATA FOR FRIDAY MARCH 28.

DOW R=8285; 8340; 8390. S=8170; 8100; 8050; 7980.

SPX R=875; 880; 885; 890. S=864; 859; 848.

NDX R=1068; 1075; 1085; 1090. S=1055; 1048; 1043; 1028.

JUN TBOND R=11116; 11128; 11224. S=11028; 11012; 10918.

JUN GOLD R=335; 338; 341. S=328; 326; 318.

MAY SILVER R=443; 450; 456. S=435; 430; 427.

MAY CRUDE R=3120; 3260; 3390. S=2970; 2929; 2860; 2800.

JUN DOLLAR R=101.25; 101.50; 101.90. S=100.50; 100.15; 99.80.

MAY BEANS R=582; 584; 588. S=576; 573; 570; 567.

MAY WHEAT R=288; 298; 304. S=280; 276; 271.

INDICES

Quadruple witching day proved stimulating last week but, unfortunately, there was no follow-through the next trading day. There is no apparent rhyme or reason behind trade these days except that the technicians rule. Fundamentals are, for the most part, out of favor. A small rally followed the unemployment claims number today, but action, by far was more technical, low volume than one would expect. Trade within the tech numbers given above. Subscribers and clients receive this data every day. (Almost every day- I do take some time off).

INTEREST RATES

The long bond will probably continue to rally, given the shape of the yield curve. Make your approaches from the long side until proven wrong. To see what I mean, compare the Eurodollar 30-day bill chart and the long bond chart.

METALS

Gold’s range, between 325-335, is not giving much of a hint as to what to expect next. Classic analysis indicates we should expect a breakdown to the 320-315 area, but the target from the head and shoulders formation has been met, oil price is back up and the dollar is down. Silver is schizo again. Copper looks to me like it is going to test 7000, and that especially so if gold and silver break down.

CURRENCY

If the metals break it stands to reason the Dollar would be stronger. So keep your eye on this for direction. Other than that, excessive verbiage is a waste.

ENERGY

Supplies are, supposedly tight. But fear is stronger than statistics. Energy prices are doomed to go higher until the market sees good evidence for them to go down. The nearer our troops get to Baghdad the rougher it’s going to get. I see no good news coming down the pike. Today’s visit from PM Tony Blair did our president no good whatsoever. Mr. Blair was articulate, fairminded, informed and willing to share thoughts that were important for us to know. Mr. Bush looked like a tight-assed moron, afraid to say anything that took more than one breath. I guess I wouldn’t be as worried if Mr. Bush led our troops into combat from a base of experience. But he has none. So I don’t get where he stands on this "I’m so tough" stance. He had his opportunity and hid like a coward during the Nam experience. Now here he is breaking bad like a tough guy. I don’t buy it and neither do many in the world. My guess is win, lose or draw Mr. Bush is out if the Dem’s can even put a baboon out in the race. In the meantime it is no relief that daily the ignorance and poor planning on the part of the Pentagon comes to bear. Thank God for high technology. Bottom line re investments is that we will muddle through this crises with loss of life, loss of savings, loss of respect worldwide and still we will survive. Buy commodities on support.

That’s enough, I’m angry, my IT guy is telling me to submit copy because he has to go out of town and I need to quit while I’m ahead. I really like trading the Dow. If you are sitting in front of your machine you can do it too.

CONTACT ME: williamfrost@comcast.net or www.frostyfutures.com.

Phone 800 825 0109, code 04 or 615 331 8567.

Trading futures is for individuals willing to assume greater risk for the opportunity of greater rewards. Only speculative capital should be used. Past performance is no assurance of future profits. Information contained herein is believed reliable but original sources of data have not been independently verified therefore is not guaranteed. Ideas and suggestions are the opinion of the writer and are subject to change at any time. Nothing herein should be construed to be a solicitation to trade futures or options. Hedgers should have a defined plan...