FROSTY FUTURES NOV. 13, 2003

TECH DATA FOR THURSDAY NOV. 14.

CASH DOW R=9860; 9880; 9905. S=9790; 9750; 9725.

CASH SPX R=1060; 1062; 1064. S=1052; 1049; 1046.

100 NDX R=1444; 1452. S=1429; 1424; 1414.

DEC TBOND USZ R=10923; 11012. S=10824; 10800; 10715.

DEC GOLD GCZ R=397; 399; 401. S=391; 388; 384.

DEC SILVER SIZ R=535; 537; 550. S=527; 522; 514.

DEC DOLLAR INDEX DXZ R=9210; 9245; 9270. S=9160; 9150; 9125.

JAN CRUDE CLF R=3150; 3160. S=3097; 3025; 2995.

JAN BEANS SF R=779; 787; 792. S=766; 745; 738.

DEC WHEAT WZ R=409; 415; 419. S=401; 398; 388.

COMMENTARY

INDICES

I am watching the 30-hour debate in the U S Senate. For those of you who have not watched any of this, or could care less, I want to take a little time to elucidate, or perhaps, just pass on to you, my own observations. The crux of this debate is that four nominees for Federal Judgeships have not been processed to the point of receiving an up or down vote. Rather, the Dem’s have filibustered the nominations. This is unprecedented in the history of the Senate. (I am not going to get into arcane definitions about what "filibuster" really means, there is enough of that on the floor.) The Dem’s are very afraid that if these four nominees were to receive a vote they would garner sufficient votes to accede to those positions. The Dem’s see these four particular nominees as ideologues who would make laws rather than interpret laws of the Constitution. They feel so strongly about this that they are willing to take this unprecedented step to stop the nominations dead in their tracks, and, make a very strong point to the Republican majority. That begs the question of why this is so? And why now? Our country is closely divided at this time, perhaps more closely divided than ever in our history.

By and large, Multi-national corporations hold a very big stick and a very large carrot over the heads of the leaders of our Republic. As capital chases cheap labor (Econ-101) our middle-class is shrinking. There are more U S Citizens under the poverty level, regardless of what measure or statistical formulae used, than any time since the measured poverty level was established. It’s getting worse each day that another Corporation outsources jobs that were held by middle-class Americans. Multi-national corporations are so eager to access cheap labor that they have sponsored the idea, and President Bush has promoted the idea, supported by a Republican majority, that multi-billion Dollar grants are being given to these nations, whether India, China, Iraq or some other location of cheap labor to be exploited, paid for by tax payers in the US. The Dem’s recognizing this are doing what they can to make sure the Judicial Branch of the Tri-partate (Executive, Legislative, Judicial) maintain some independence and not just a rubber stamp of what amounts to multi-natiional corporation’s hunger for profit.

This underlying phenomenon is what is so confusing within the market place. I am asked daily, how it can be that the Dollar sinks, interest rates go down but the stock market goes up? Stocks are going up because, by and large, earnings are pretty good. Interest rates are low because inflation expectations are low. The Dollar is sinking because the strength of the Dollar relies upon the taxing ability of the US Government. If the middle-class shrinks there are fewer tax dollars to be had. If the Republicans won’t tax the wealthy and corporate profits then where will tax dollars come from? This undermines the strength of the US currency.

I know you are not used to this kind of article coming from me. But be flexible and go along with it. If you can see more clearly what might be going on because of this article I will have done my job regardless of what you are used to. Draw your own conclusions, but, please, use me as your broker, send this out to your friends and please note that my phone number has been corrected at the bottom of the page.

Best to all,

Bill

CONTACT ME: williamfrost@comcast.net or call 615 331 8567.

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Trading futures is for individuals willing to assume greater risk for the opportunity of greater rewards. Only speculative capital should be used. Past performance is no assurance of future profits. Information contained herein is believed reliable but original sources of data have not been independently verified therefore is not guaranteed. Ideas and suggestions are the opinion of the writer and are subject to change at any time. Nothing herein should be construed to be a solicitation to trade futures or options. Hedgers should have a defined plan.