FROSTY FUTURES MARCH 4, 2004

TECH DATA FOR FRIDAY MAR. 5.

DOW R=10610; 10650; 10700. S=10550; 10500; 10450.

SPX R=1158; 1160; 1170. S=1150; 1142; 1139.

NDX R=1485; 1490; 1505. S=1469; 1465; 1452.

JUN TBOND R=11203; 11215; 11226. S=11122; 11105; 11018.

APR GOLD R=396; 399; 405. S=391; 387; 383.

MAY SILVER R=687; 695; 703. S=671; 655; 650.

MAR DOLLAR R=8950; 9000; 9050. S=8890; 8800; 8780.

MAY CRUDE R=3590; 3625; 3680. S=3535; 3490.

MAY CORN R=299; 303; 305. S=294; 292; 289.

JLY CORN R=303; 307; 310. S=298; 296; 294.

MAY BEANS R=946; 958; 976. S=924; 914; 911.

COMMENTARY

CURRENCY

The Dollar is now above the 100-day MA. A close above 8915 seals the deal on daily charts. A trend within a trend has begun as the uptrend accelerates. The next apparent level of resistance is near 9080-9100. This basis the March contract, so start looking at the June chart to get the switch over firmly fixed in your eyes.

METALS

Gold is consolidating. Follow TECH DATA for support and resistance levels. Silver remains in an uptrend and a close today above 683, basis May, keeps weeklies on target. Copper appears to be well supported between 129-126 basis May.

INDICES

SPX is nearest to top resistance on charts of the three major indices. NDX is the weakest, merely reflecting the innate higher level of volatility. The DOW is meandering along a path along the ridge with no real direction. I agree with Al Goldman at AG Edward’s who is fully invested. I think the secular direction of stocks is up, albeit with some swags now and then.

CATTLE

Beef and cattle (the difference is beef is dead and butchered, cattle are alive on the hoof) are moving and at seasonally strong price. Bull spreads are working as doubt about the future, both on a seasonal basis and uncertainty about future export demand comes into focus.

INTEREST RATE

The news this morning is bullish bonds, notes and bills. The immediate reaction led to a full 2-point move in the longbond, up to and through the 114 level. It has not held, a mere five minutes after the report and as I write this has pulled back a half-point. End of day strength will be measured by a close above or below key resistance at 11307.

ENERGY

A very well supported market exists. But watch out, when this breaks it will break with a vengeance. A move above 3625 May indicates the potential for more strength next week. No sign of exhaustion as of yet.

SOFTS

Cocoa is near the low end of its many month trading range. For coffee, a week’s end close above 7600 basis May, indicates some strength. So far, sugar has not been able to test resistance at the 635 level, but that is the next target should the current consolidation resolve to the upside. A slowdown in demand for current year crop coupled with increased expectations for next year’s crop has price under pressure.

GRAINS

Beans are testing the 10-day MA. A close above 925 keeps intact the uptrend basis May contract. Corn is wavering between the 10 and 20 day MA’s. A close back above 298 May would be a good sign for bulls. Old crop wheat is in no-man’s land. Closer to support than resistance, the problem is that strength of support is an unknown.

CONTACT ME: williamfrost@comcast.net or call 615 331 8567.

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Trading futures is for individuals willing to assume greater risk for the opportunity of greater rewards. Only speculative capital should be used. Past performance is no assurance of future profits. Information contained herein is believed reliable but original sources of data have not been independently verified therefore is not guaranteed. Ideas and suggestions are the opinion of the writer and are subject to change at any time. Nothing herein should be construed to be a solicitation to trade futures or options. Hedgers should have a defined plan.