FROSTY FUTURES

THURSDAY MAR. 18, 2004

TECH DATA FOR FRIDAY MAR. 19.

DOW R=10330; 10440; 10520. S=10270; 10215; 10180.

SPX R=1126; 1136; 1140. S=1118; 1113; 1103.

NDX R=1426; 1432; 1452. S=1414; 1407; 1390.

JUN TBOND R=11522; 11600; 11612. S=11430; 11416; 11400.

JUN GOLD R=416; 419; 423. S=411; 408; 404.

MAY SILVER R=748; 760; 765. S=736; 725; 715.

JUN DOLLAR R=8850; 8890; 8950. S=8780; 8755; 8720.

JUN CRUDE R=3675; 3690; 3725. S=3615; 3550; 3420.

JLY BEANS R=1015; 1025; 1040. S=1002; 992; 985.

JLY CORN R=318; 322; 325. S=314; 308; 303.

JLY WHEAT R=404; 18. S=394; 382; 377.

COMMENTARY

INDICES

I believe stocks are going higher. I told you that I put my money where my mouth is this week by purchasing GE at $30.64. Kudlow is on the boob screaming to sell bonds and buy stocks. AG Edward’s is fully invested, not just in their customer’s accounts by the way. Analysts can’t choose which stock brokerage firm is the better buy…Merrill or Morgan Stanley. I’ve seen it before. When the light switch gets flipped the market follows. I can’t tell you for how long the light will remain turned on, but for now, use the light. Follow TECH DATA daily for support-resistance areas if you are a trader and need some guidance.

METALS

Gold and silver are, more or less, dependent on what the Dollar does. I believe the Buck is going to test 8750 level. During the week it could go below that important level to clean out stops or make sure there is good, sound support there. But by the end of the month, basis monthly charts, I believe the price will be above 8750 and on its way to 9400-9500 for a 25% correction of the previous years’ down move. Should this scenario develop as predicted, I will have covered my long gold and silver positions, or most of them, in the near future. Copper supplies remain tight, but I have to believe producers are being stimulated to increase production at current levels. If not, then look for higher price.

CATTLE

Cash price is holding, summer futures prices are discounted, Canadian beef is slipping over the line but not in any huge amounts and there are battles going on to prevent more Canadian pork from coming across. I have no advice for speculators and can only tell producers to stay hedged.

ENERGY

One of the biggest bull traps in history is being constructed in the energy pits. It may turn out to be as big a bubble as the high tech bubble was several years ago.

SOFTS

On my daily continuation chart there is an island reversal pattern in cocoa. Support on spot month is 1425. Get long, use stops. Coffee is supported at 7400 and has resistance at 7900, basis May. Sugar, the coffee sweetener appears to me to be working up steam to make it up to 725. Support is now above old resistance at 635. May cotton should be able to test 6900. See what happens from there, I can’t foretell.

GRAINS

I see no top. Demand is great, supplies are tight. It’s a bull market. At least in beans and corn. Wheat has been a laggard and may remain so.

CONTACT ME: williamfrost@comcast.net or call 615 331 8567.

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Trading futures is for individuals willing to assume greater risk for the opportunity of greater rewards. Only speculative capital should be used. Past performance is no assurance of future profits. Information contained herein is believed reliable but original sources of data have not been independently verified therefore is not guaranteed. Ideas and suggestions are the opinion of the writer and are subject to change at any time. Nothing herein should be construed to be a solicitation to trade futures or options. Hedgers should have a defined plan.