FROSTY FUTURES JUNE 13, 2004

TECH DATA FOR MONDAY JUNE 14.

DOW R=10433; 10478; 10538. S=10353; 10314; 10243.

SPX R=1142; 1148; 1151. S=1132; 1125; 1117.

NDX R=1492; 1496; 1509. S=1470; 1464; 1453.

USU R=10403; 10417; 10520. S=10311; 10302; 10204.

GCQ R=389; 394; 399. S=383; 379; 376.

SIN R=585; 593; 620. S=560; 551; 545.

DXU R=9009; 9064; 9115. S=8950; 8890; 8841.

CLQ R=3890; 3977; 4214. S=3778; 3729; 3654.

SX R=679; 690; 710. S=655; 648; 637.

CZ R=298; 303; 307. S=290; 283; 280.

WZ R=378; 382; 387. S=371; 364; 347.

COMMENTARY


INDICES

Stock charts remain in a consolidation pattern, albeit, with rather wide ranges. Economic fundamentals appear to be in a positive growth phase and charts do not contradict that appearance. While allowing for the mentioned wide swings, my advice is to continue to approach stock index contracts from the long side on dips. Watch TECH DATA for daily support and resistance areas.

INTEREST RATES

It is too early to forecast higher interest rates at this time. The technical bounce the longbond presented, with lows at 10302, was substantial in nature and should not be totally discounted. If a pattern of closes below that support takes place then we can target 9902 for a new downside target. Until that takes place patience is a virtue.

METALS

Skepticism continues to be reflected in the picture traders are printing on daily and weekly gold charts. Doubt about the stability of the US Dollar, inflation rate, interest rate, unemployment all combine to show gold bugs are not easily convinced economic fundamentals are as solid as the stock index charts might lead one to believe. Silver is also in consolidation, however I can project an 80-cent move either from breaking below support at 545 or above resistance at 625. Resistance on copper is 122-126.5.

CURRENCY

The Dollar Index sprang above short-term resistance levels and is approaching its technical target at 9060. Above that level is additional resistance at 9115. The gap gets closed with a trade of 9016.

CATTLE

A top appears to be in place looking at the August daily chart. The seasonal is turning from bullish to bearish as cattle weights increase. But as long as supplies remain tight year to year, prices will remain strong. Feeder cattle, basis the August contract, I think, are going to test 10425.

ENERGY

Looking at the August crude daily chart, I would prefer to see the price not be able to retest 40.00. Close below 36.54 would encourage the bears. August unleaded will find a key for direction at the 119.30 level.

CONTACT ME: williamfrost@comcast.net or call 615 331 8567.

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Trading futures is for individuals willing to assume greater risk for the opportunity of greater rewards. Only speculative capital should be used. Past performance is no assurance of future profits. Information contained herein is believed reliable but original sources of data have not been independently verified therefore is not guaranteed. Ideas and suggestions are the opinion of the writer and are subject to change at any time. Nothing herein should be construed to be a solicitation to trade futures or options. Hedgers should have a defined plan.