New Trade Recommendations - 04/22/05

BONDS: Buy June bonds at 113-13 with an initial objective of 114-20 and possibly a 116-14 objective. Risk the trade to 112-10.
SOYBEANS: Buy November soybeans at 622 with an objective of 671 1/2. Risk the trade to 609.
PRECIOUS METALS: Sell July platinum on a rally to $875 with an objective of $855 and a risk of $886.
COPPER: Buy a July copper 145 put for 520 points, with an objective of 1105.
Risk the position to 250.

---------------------------------------------------------------

Today's Market Roundup - 04/22/05
***BONDS - TODAY'S MARKET IDEAS: Unless equity prices surprise with another
big up day, we suspect that economic optimism will be short lived.
NEW RECOMMENDATIONS: Buy June bonds at 113-13 with an initial objective of
114-20 and possibly a 116-14 objective. Risk the trade to 112-10.
PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS: Long 4 June bond 109 puts for 57, Long 1 June bond
at 110-20. *Hit objective of 111-11 on the futures for a gain of 22 ticks.
Keep an objective of 2-29 ticks on the 109 puts. Risk a total of $2,000.
***STOCKS - TODAY'S MARKET IDEAS: Some earnings reports have been strong
enough to result in a re-evaluation of the economic outlook. However, we still get
the sense the current rally is about the economy not being as bad as expected, as
opposed to a view that the economy is in fact back on a solid growth track.
NEW RECOMMENDATIONS: None.
PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS: None.
***CURRENCIES - TODAY'S MARKET IDEAS: None.
NEW RECOMMENDATIONS: None.
PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS: Long June Dollar from 83.60, *Hit the profit stop at
84.85. Long the June Euro 127.50 put for 90, *Hit profit stop of 110.
***ENERGIES - TODAY'S MARKET IDEAS: None.
NEW RECOMMENDATIONS: None.
PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS: 1) Long a June 49.00 put for 40/Long July crude 60
call for 195. *Hit objective of *100 on the June 49.00 put for a 60 point
profit, hold the July call with an adjusted net cost of 95 points. *Use an objective
of 290 on the July call. 2) Long 10 September $44.50 crude oil puts for 58,
Long Sept crude oil futures $57.40. Use an objective of $59.90 on the long
futures and an objective of 350 on the puts. Use an objective of 100 on 2 puts
and hold the remaining position. Risk the position to a net combination loss
of $4,000. 3) Long June Crude 49 put for 88 and long a July crude 55.50 call
for 205 points. Use an objective of *210 on the June put and an objective of
580 on the July call.
***PRECIOUS METALS - TODAY'S MARKET IDEAS: None.
NEW RECOMMENDATIONS: Sell July platinum on a rally to $875 with an objective
of $855 and a risk of $886.
PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS: Remain Long June gold at 444. *Took off the 465 call
for a gain of 1.70. *Took profits on the 430 put from 500 at 750 for a gain of
2.50, took minimal profit on the short 440 call +.60, net options offset is
now
4.80. *Hit lowered objective of *$432, which lowers the net loss to 720.
***COPPER - TODAY'S MARKET IDEAS: We detect a trend toward higher copper
stocks
in London and we also think that the Chinese currency situation is poised to
change.
NEW RECOMMENDATIONS: Buy a July copper 145 put for 520 points, with an
objective
of 1105. Risk the position to 250.
PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS: Exit short futures and replace with a long put-
Short
July copper at 148.70, *with an objective of 148.70. *Risk the trade to
148.70.
***SOYCOMPLEX - TODAY'S MARKET IDEAS: Funds traders and speculators should be
good buyers on corrective breaks and producer selling, both here and in
Brazil,
seems to slow on breaks. Look to buy minor technical corrections in July or
November soybeans. July support comes in at 633 1/2 with 653 1/4 and 663 1/2
as next resistance.
NEW RECOMMENDATIONS: Buy November soybeans at 622 with an objective of 671
1/2.
Risk the trade to 609.
PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS: None.
***CORN - TODAY'S MARKET IDEAS: With hefty beginning stocks, the market may
need a good reason to see a weather premium for December. July is burdened
with
hefty stocks but downside limited unless producers sell. December corn support
comes in at 232 1/2 with 238 1/2 resistance. A move over 238 1/2 would project
257 3/4 as longer-term upside objective. Buy breaks.
NEW RECOMMENDATIONS: None.
PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS: Long 4 September corn 280 calls and short 1
September
corn 240 call at +11 premium paid. Objective +39 cents. Risk a total of 8
cents.

Long 3 July corn 250 calls for 8 each and took 11 1/2 cent gain on short July
futures. Hold calls for now.
Long December corn 260 call from 10 and long July corn 210 put for 6 1/2
cents.
Sell the 210 put for a 12 1/2 and hold the December call.
***WHEAT - TODAY'S MARKET IDEAS: The world weather remains a constant bearish
influence on the market. Europe has plenty to sell and US crop conditions are
good. Could see a bit more up on correction of oversold condition. July could
bounce to 330 but not much more.
NEW RECOMMENDATIONS: None.
PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS: Short 1 September wheat 330 call from 22 and long 3
September 370 calls for 9 each.
***CATTLE - TODAY'S MARKET IDEAS: The weak technical action in the face of $94
cash market is sign that the trade is convinced that a top is close at hand.
Tonight's COF report and the big discount of June to cash should support. June
cattle support drops back to 85.05 with 86.90 and 87.47 as next objectives.
NEW RECOMMENDATIONS: None.
PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS: Long June cattle from 84.10 with an objective of
86.90. * Risk to 84.40.
***HOGS - TODAY'S MARKET IDEAS: The producer marketings do not seem as large
as feared with Midwest rain. Numbers should taper off ahead and support cash
uptrend. June hog June hog support comes in at 77.15 and 76.85. Look for
support
to hold for now.
NEW RECOMMENDATIONS: None.
PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS: NONE.
***COTTON - TODAY'S MARKET IDEAS: The trend is still up with support for
December
cotton at the 56.10 to 55.55 zone. Keep 60.17 as next upside objective.
NEW RECOMMENDATIONS: None.
PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS: None.
***COFFEE - TODAY'S MARKET IDEAS: A move over 125.90 today for July coffee
would
penetrate the 50-day moving average and the recent downtrend channel and help
confirm a resumption of the uptrend for coffee. Another leg higher would leave
152.80 as next upside objective. July coffee support comes in at 120.80 with
resistance at 130.60. Consider buying the August 125/150 bull call spread.
NEW RECOMMENDATIONS: None.
PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS: None.
***COCOA - TODAY'S MARKET IDEAS: None.
NEW RECOMMENDATIONS: None.
PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS: Long July cocoa on a break down to $1,550, *Hit
tight
stop at $1,530.
***SUGAR - TODAY'S MARKET IDEAS: Buying support for July sugar comes in at the
836-830 zone with 876 and 891 as initial resistance levels. Consider buying
futures or calls on breaks.
NEW RECOMMENDATIONS: None.
PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS: Short 1 October sugar 850 call from 51 and long 3 of
the October 950 calls at 20 each.

---------------------------------------------------------------

Today's Headline Summary

FUNDAMENTAL:
STOCKS: MASSIVE GAINS THURSDAY HAVE THE BEARS TEMPORARILY BACK ON THEIR
HEELS
BONDS: FLEETING EQUITY MARKET OPTIMISM TEMPORARILY PRESSURING TREASURIES
CURRENCIES: THE PATH OF THE US DOLLAR IS DOWN BUT DOWN ONLY GRADUALLY
COPPER: COMPONENTS OF THE BULL CASE ARE STARTING TO DETERIORATE A COMING TOP?

METALS: LACK OF A SOLID TREND UP A SLIGHT UPWARD BIAS IS PRESENT
CATTLE: EXPECT CHOPPY TRADE AHEAD OF USDA REPORT; DISCOUNT TO SUPPORT MONDAY
HOGS: WEATHER-RELATED PRODUCER MARKETINGS NOT AS LARGE AS EXPECTED; FIRM
BEANS: ALLREADY ABSORBED BRAZIL CROP WITH FOCUS SHIFTING TO NEW CROP; BUY
NOV
CORN: NEED WEATHER REASON TO RUN HIGHER DEMAND NEWS MAY IMPROVE; CHOP/UP
WHEAT: WEATHER LOOKS FAVORABLE; COULD BOUNCE TO CORRECT BUT MORE DOWN AHEAD
ENERGY: MARKET HAS PROBABLY FORGED A SOLID LOW WITH GASOLINE NOW THE KEY FOCUS

COTTON: STRONG DEMAND FROM CHINA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT; NEW HIGH SHIPMENTS
COFFEE: BRAZIL CROP ESTIMATE AFTER CLOSE TODAY; MORE UP NEXT WEEK
SUGAR: SHARP BREAK OFF OF MARCH PEAK MAY HAVE HELPED PRICE BIG BRAZIL CROP
COCOA: THE NEAR TERM PATH OF LEAST RESISTANCE IS POINTING DOWN

TECHNICAL:
BEANS: SOLID CLOSE KEEPS MARKET INAN UPWARD BIAS
CORN: NEED CLOSE OVER 320 TO BE CONFIDENT SOLID LOW IN PLACE
WHEAT: LACK OF UPSIDE FOLOOW THROUGH PUTS 311 LOW IN QUESTION
CATTLE: UPSIDE MOMENTUM FAILING WITH FAILURE AT 86 RESISTANCE
HOGS: FALSE BREAKOUT OVER 78 SUGGEST RETEST OF 76 POSSIBLE
SUGAR: IF 8.40 CAN HOLD ON PULLBACK THEN MORE UP LIKELY
COTTON: INSIDE DAY BUT RECENT HIGHER LOWS SUGGEST UPSIDE BIAS
ENERGY: DESPITE PULLBACK CRUDE SHOULD FIND SUPPORT 52.96 THEN 52.45
METALS:INSIDE DAY WITH WEAK CLOSE, GOLD PULLBACK, 432.40 SUPPORT
FORX: EURO OVER BOUGHT, FAILURE AT 1.30 SUGGEST BREAT TO 1.2922
BONDS: TOPPING ACTION WITH OUTSIDE DAY DOWN, BREAK TO 111.26 POSSIBLE
S&P: MAYBE TRYING TO FORM A LOW SINCE PRICES UNDER 1140 REJECTED AGAIN



****** DAILY ENERGY COMPLEX COMMENTARY
04/22/05

MARKET HAS PROBABLY FORGED A SOLID LOW WITH GASOLINE NOW THE KEY FOCUS

OVERNIGHT CHANGES THROUGH 4:00 AM:
CRUDE +35, HEATING +55, UNLEADED +84

The energy complex attempted to track lower Thursday but eventually managed to
recover in the late afternoon action. Initially projections from a private
tanker movement service pressured prices on Thursday, as that service
indicated
that OPEC export flow might increase by 320,000 barrels per day into the May
7th time frame. We also think that oil prices were dampen early Thursday, by
concerns that China might be poised to hike interest rates, but with a
generally
better than expected flow US economic readings and the sharp rise in the US
equity market, the recent concern of slackening energy demand has been
mitigated.
We also suspect that part of the recovery bounce yesterday was sparked by
reports
of a shooting at Mecca, which supposedly resulted from militants attacking
police. While that might be an isolated event, traders should realize that any
uprising in Saudi Arabia would be the type of factor that would be capable of
sending energy prices shooting back above the April highs. While we are not
sure what impact the passage of the current Energy Bill will have on energy
prices, the specifics in the program would seem to be rather anemic and
insignificant and that is why the Press is already playing up the potential
for
summer gasoline shortages. One should note that the gasoline market maintained
a leadership role in the action Thursday and that type of action could shift
daily market sentiment toward the US refinery sector and away from the bearish
view that high crude supply is flowing. With the US President all but throwing
in the towel on the high gasoline price situation and the Energy Bill failing
to even foster compliance with prior alternative fuel use targets, it is clear
that the US economy is going to be left to confront the coming summer driving
season, with simple "hopes" that no major outages are seen. The Administration
also discounted the possibility of halting the refill of the SPR until prices
softened and that might be supportive. However, we have to wonder why the
government is so infatuated with storing crude oil, when the market really
needs
a back up supply of diesel and gasoline. In other words, the big threat is not
getting oil from the Middle East, but is in reality getting gasoline from US
refiners! We must also note that the oil industry was tossed a bone by what
appears to be immunity to MTBE and that is in of itself a major windfall for
big oil. In the near term, prices probably look to chop within a range, with
this week's lows extremely solid support and this week's highs easily taken
out
with any additional improvement in macro economic expectations or certainly
with any minimal US refinery disruption.

NATURAL GAS: The weekly gas storage report yesterday showed an injection of 50
bcf compared to estimates between +70 bcf to +30 bcf. Gas storage now stands
at 1,343 bcf with stocks 270 bcf above year ago and 275 bcf above the 11 year
average. Gas stocks have increased by 53 bcf over the last four weeks. The
latest 6 to 10 day forecast (April 26th to 30th) for the Northeast and Midwest
is for below normal temperatures and that could actually serve to support
prices.
However, the June Natural gas market must hold above critical support of $6.98
to avoid sparking a stop loss selling wave. On the other hand, given the
slight
improvement in the US economic outlook and the resurgent role of gasoline in
the daily energy market action we see support for natural gas firming up. In
fact, unless the outlook for the Chinese economy deteriorates, or June crude
oil fails to hold above $51.90, we suspect that the natural gas market will
manage to hold above near term support of $6.98.

TODAY'S MARKET IDEAS:
None.

NEW RECOMMENDATIONS:
None.

PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS:
1) Long a June 49.00 put for 40/Long July crude 60 call for 195. *Hit
objective
of *100 on the June 49.00 put for a 60 point profit, hold the July call with
an adjusted net cost of 95 points. *Use an objective of 290 on the July call.
2) Long 10 September $44.50 crude oil puts for 58, Long Sept crude oil futures
$57.40. Use an objective of $59.90 on the long futures and an objective of 350
on the puts. Use an objective of 100 on 2 puts and hold the remaining
position.
Risk the position to a net combination loss of $4,000. 3) Long June Crude 49
put for 88 and long a July crude 55.50 call for 205 points. Use an objective
of *210 on the June put and an objective of 580 on the July call.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:
Note: Technical commentary is based solely on statistical indicators and does
not necessarily correspond to any fundamental analysis that may appear
elsewhere
in this report.

DESPITE PULLBACK CRUDE SHOULD FIND SUPPORT 52.96 THEN 52.45

CRUDE OIL (JUN) 04/22/2005: Rising from oversold levels, daily momentum
studies
would support higher prices, especially on a close above resistance. The close
below the 18-day moving average is an indication the longer-term trend has
turned down. The daily closing price reversal up is a positive indicator that
could support higher prices. The market has a slightly positive tilt with the
close over the swing pivot. The near-term upside target is at 55.22. The next
area of resistance is around 54.85 and 55.22, while 1st support hits today at
53.55 and below there at 52.63.

HEATING OIL (JUN) 04/22/2005: The stochastics indicators are rising from
oversold
levels, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market now
above
the 18-day moving average suggests the longer-term trend has turned up. There
could be more upside follow through since the market closed above the 2nd
swing
resistance. The next upside objective is 157.27. The next area of resistance
is around 155.94 and 157.27, while 1st support hits today at 151.65 and below
there at 148.68.

UNLEADED (JUN) 04/22/2005: Momentum studies are rising from mid-range, which
could accelerate a move higher if resistance levels are penetrated. The market
now above the 18-day moving average suggests the longer-term trend has turned
up. A positive setup occurred with the close over the 1st swing resistance.
The
next upside objective is 166.30. The next area of resistance is around 164.91
and 166.30, while 1st support hits today at 160.01 and below there at
156.51.

NATURAL GAS (JUN) 04/22/2005: Daily stochastics declining into oversold
territory
suggest the selling may be drying up soon. The major trend has turned down
with
the cross over back below the 18-day moving average. The gap down on the day
session chart is bearish with more selling pressure possible today. The
market's
close below the pivot swing number is a mildly negative setup. The next
downside
target is 6.940. The next area of resistance is around 7.180 and 7.220, while
1st support hits today at 7.040 and below there at 6.940.


***** ENERGY COMPLEX TECHNICAL STATISTICS
CALCULATIONS BASED ON PREVIOUS DAY SESSION CLOSES
DATA SOURCES CAN & DO PRODUCE BAD TICKS. VERIFY BEFORE USE.
14 DAY 14 DAY
9 DAY 14 DAY SLOW SLOW 20 DAY 40 DAY 60 DAY
CLOSE RSI RSI STOCH D STOCH K M AVG M AVG M AVG
ENERGY COMPLEX
CLM5 54.20 50.33 49.98 23.35 29.38 54.79 54.90 52.66
HOM5 153.80 57.43 56.41 22.41 28.78 152.67 149.17 141.18
HUM5 162.46 58.70 56.39 24.26 32.86 160.90 158.19 151.71
NGM5 7.110 39.49 44.55 17.31 14.86 7.38 7.24 6.94
LGM5 85.25 49.76 50.52 19.84 26.10 86.00 85.54 81.59

DAILY SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
BASED ON DAY SESSION CLS - VERIFY BEFORE USE (DATA SUBJECT TO ERRORS)
SUPRT 2 SUPRT 1 PIVOT RESIST 1 RESIST 2
ENERGY COMPLEX
CLM5 CRUDE OIL 52.62 53.55 53.92 54.85 55.22
HOM5 HEATING OIL 148.67 151.64 152.97 155.94 157.27
HUM5 UNLEADED 156.50 160.01 161.40 164.91 166.30
NGM5 NATURAL GAS 6.940 7.040 7.080 7.180 7.220
LGM5 LIQUIDGAS 85.25 85.25 85.25 85.25 85.25



****** DAILY COCOA COMMENTARY
04/22/05

THE NEAR TERM PATH OF LEAST RESISTANCE IS POINTING DOWN

A combination of developments seems to have shifted the near term trend in the
cocoa to the downside. In addition to a rising Dollar, it would seem like the
market is coming under additional liquidation off the idea that the African
Mid
crop is seeing good conditions. We already know that the global demand
function
is mostly unchanged and that a decent supply flow from African production
areas
could mean that ending stocks actually manage to rise. Also pressuring cocoa
prices are concerns that Ivory Coast Peace efforts are lowering the threats
against future supply. While it would be difficult to determine just how much
of the rally off the 2000 low of $674 is the result of political uncertainty,
we suspect that one might be able to justify a decline back down to the 2005
lows in the event that entrenched calm is seen at the Ivory Coast. On the
other
hand, history suggests that Peace between the Ivory Coast government and the
rebels will never be a sure thing. In the near term, we suspect that a
combination
of fund liquidation, a higher Dollar and ongoing Peace at the Ivory Coast
could
push the July contract down to $1,475, but we would be uncomfortable being
short
at that level. The Nybot reported cocoa warehouse stocks to have increased by
3,229 bags to stand at 2.841 million bags.

FUNDAMENTAL FOCUS: Without supply or political uncertainty and in the face of
a rising Dollar, cocoa could continue to slide back toward the 2005 lows.
Buyers
are hardly pressed to secure forward needs and the market is mostly
technically
balanced by the consistent slide off the March high, so selling is expected to
be measured and muted.

TODAY'S MARKET IDEAS:
None.

NEW RECOMMENDATIONS:
None.

PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS:
Long July cocoa on a break down to $1,550, *Hit tight stop at $1,530.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:
Note: Technical commentary is based solely on statistical indicators and does
not necessarily correspond to any fundamental analysis that may appear
elsewhere
in this report.

COCOA (JUL) 04/22/2005: Daily momentum studies are on the rise from low levels
and should accelerate a move higher on a push through the 1st swing
resistance.
The close below the 18-day moving average is an indication the longer-term
trend
has turned down. The close below the 1st swing support could weigh on the
market.
The next upside objective is 1563. The next area of resistance is around 1548
and 1563, while 1st support hits today at 1528 and below there at 1522.



****** DAILY COFFEE COMMENTARY
04/22/05

BRAZIL CROP ESTIMATE AFTER CLOSE TODAY; MORE UP NEXT WEEK

The market appears set to resume the uptrend as supplies should tighten ahead
of the 2005/2006 harvest in Brazil. The market will then be in a position to
absorb a 10 million bag world production deficit for the coming year. July
coffee managed to rally to a 10-session peak yesterday before closing lower on
the session and near the lows of the day. A weak close in London and a lack of
fund buying activity helped to pressure futures. Ideas that the market is
overbought after the recent surge helped to trigger the late selling.
Traders are
positioning ahead of today's Brazil crop estimate. On the first delivery day,
1,138 contracts were posted against the May futures. A holiday in Brazil kept
the commercial trade quiet. Brazil officials sold 57,360 bags of the 60,000
bags of federal stocks offered in auction. Indian production for the 2004/05
season totaled 4.583 million bags and good weather so far this season
indicates
a 5 million bag crop is possible for the coming season. The basic fundamentals
for the coffee market remain very bullish for the coming year, and to this
point, the market has not had to absorb the major drawdown in world coffee
stocks
which is likely to occur. While coffee prices may feel expensive after
spending
most of the past five years under 100, a 50% retracement of the break from the
1997 peak to the 2001 low comes in at 179.75. This will become the next longer
term objective if there are further weather problems for the 2005/2006 season.
In a Reuter's interview with the chairman of the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa
Association there were indications that the 2005/2006 Vietnam crop could be
cut
by one third with a prolonged drought. Exchange coffee warehouse stocks stood
at 4.486 million bags as of April 19th, up 3.427 bags from the previous day
with 55,241 bags pending review.

FUNDAMENTAL FOCUS: The Brazil crop estimate will be released this afternoon.
The December Brazil forecast was 30.7-33.0 million bags, down 17% from last
year. Trade house estimates range between 34-39 million bags, but given the
recent weather, Brazil is likely to come back with a steady to slightly
smaller
forecast.

TODAY'S MARKET IDEAS:
A move over 125.90 today for July coffee would penetrate the 50-day moving
average and the recent downtrend channel and help confirm a resumption of the
uptrend for coffee. Another leg higher would leave 152.80 as next upside
objective. July coffee support comes in at 120.80 with resistance at 130.60.
Consider buying the August 125/150 bull call spread.

NEW RECOMMENDATIONS:
None.

PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS:
None.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:
Note: Technical commentary is based solely on statistical indicators and does
not necessarily correspond to any fundamental analysis that may appear
elsewhere
in this report.

COFFEE (JUL) 04/22/2005: The major trend has turned down with the cross over
back below the 60-day moving average. Stochastics are at mid-range but
trending
higher, which should reinforce a move higher if resistance levels are taken
out. The cross over and close above the 18-day moving average is an indication
the longer-term trend has turned positive. The daily closing price reversal
down puts the market on the defensive. It is a slightly negative indicator
that
the close was under the swing pivot. The next upside objective is 126.85. The
next area of resistance is around 124.45 and 126.85, while 1st support hits
today at 121.05 and below there at 120.00.



****** DAILY COTTON COMMENTARY
04/22/05

STRONG DEMAND FROM CHINA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT; NEW HIGH SHIPMENTS

Given the hefty supply fundamentals, the cotton market seems to be in a
position
to need a constant flow of friendly demand news to sustain the recent uptrend.
While it is still too early to tell, the production outlook for the coming
year
seems to be favorable. However, demand also looks strong and the market is
finding significant support from the idea that China will see a smaller
crop and
increasing demand for the coming season. July cotton pushed lower with an
inside
trading session as a slowdown in the aggressive merchant buying in the May
contract combined with some economic fears for China helped to trigger light
speculative long liquidation selling. The market was called slightly higher on
the opening due to solid export sales news. Weekly export sales came in at
274,000 bales as compared with trade expectations between 150,000-250,000
bales.
Cumulative sales have reached 95% of the USDA forecast for the year, which
compares with an average of 101.1% for the past 5 years. Shipments came in
at a
marketing year high at 432,200 bales vs trade expectations between
350,000-450,000
bales. The first notice day for May cotton is on Monday with traders now
expecting
a large merchant to be a major stopper of deliveries. Certified cotton stocks
deliverable against the exchange as of April 20th totaled 268,484 bales, up
from 264,340 bales the previous session.

FUNDAMENTAL FOCUS: The recovery in the US stocks market is a supportive factor
and traders are now expecting China to remain as an active importer in the
weeks
ahead. In the weekly sales report, shipments were at a marketing year high
with
China the largest buyer at 103,800 bales.

TODAY'S MARKET IDEAS:
The trend is still up with support for December cotton at the 56.10 to 55.55
zone. Keep 60.17 as next upside objective.

NEW RECOMMENDATIONS:
None.

PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS:
None.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:
Note: Technical commentary is based solely on statistical indicators and does
not necessarily correspond to any fundamental analysis that may appear
elsewhere
in this report.

INSIDE DAY BUT RECENT HIGHER LOWS SUGGEST UPSIDE BIAS

COTTON (JUL) 04/22/2005: Momentum studies are trending higher from mid-range,
which should support a move higher if resistance levels are penetrated. The
cross over and close above the 18-day moving average is an indication the
longer-term trend has turned positive. It is a slightly negative indicator
that
the close was lower than the pivot swing number. The next upside target is
55.59. The next area of resistance is around 55.07 and 55.59, while 1st
support
hits today at 53.80 and below there at 53.04.



****** DAILY SUGAR COMMENTARY
04/22/05

SHARP BREAK OFF OF MARCH PEAK MAY HAVE HELPED PRICE BIG BRAZIL CROP

The market has experienced a major sell-off from the March 14th peak and
tonight's
Commitment-of-Traders report may help show the extent of the long liquidation.
July sugar closed 1 tick lower on the session as the early run to new highs
for
the week failed to attract additional buying support. The 35 point jump off of
Friday's lows left the market in a slightly overbought condition and fund
buyers
(who have been active this week) were on the sidelines. In addition, Brazil's
cane demand from the ethanol industry is expected to be strong. Strength in
London helped provide some support with August closing at the highest level
since April 8th. Dryness at the end of the growing season may have pinched the
Brazil center-south cane production forecast. Traders remain concerned that as
more of the Brazil harvest hits the market that prices will suffer. However,
lower production from Thailand and China this season combined with active
demand
for ethanol in the domestic market for Brazil for the start of the harvest
could
keep the market tight if buyers are active on this break. Russia refined
907,200
tonnes of white sugar from imported raw sugar from the start of the year
through
April 20th, down 1.4% from last year's pace.

FUNDAMENTAL FOCUS: Talk of lower production from Europe, Cuba and China for
the
coming season helped to provide some support in spite of fears of another
record
cane crop in Brazil.

TODAY'S MARKET IDEAS:
Buying support for July sugar comes in at the 836-830 zone with 876 and 891 as
initial resistance levels. Consider buying futures or calls on breaks.

NEW RECOMMENDATIONS:
None.

PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS:
Short 1 October sugar 850 call from 51 and long 3 of the October 950 calls at
20 each.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:
Note: Technical commentary is based solely on statistical indicators and does
not necessarily correspond to any fundamental analysis that may appear
elsewhere
in this report.

IF 8.40 CAN HOLD ON PULLBACK THEN MORE UP LIKELY

SUGAR (JUL) 04/22/2005: Stochastics are at mid-range but trending higher,
which
should reinforce a move higher if resistance levels are taken out. The close
under the 18-day moving average indicates the longer-term trend could be
turning
down. It is a slightly negative indicator that the close was under the swing
pivot. The near-term upside objective is at 8.50. The next area of resistance
is around 8.45 and 8.50, while 1st support hits today at 8.40 and below there
at 8.38.




** OJ TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:
Note: Technical commentary is based solely on statistical indicators and does
not necessarily correspond to any fundamental analysis that may appear
elsewhere
in this report.

OJ (MAY) 04/22/2005: A bullish signal was given with an upside crossover of
the
daily stochastics. Rising from oversold levels, daily momentum studies would
support higher prices, especially on a close above resistance. The close below
the 18-day moving average is an indication the longer-term trend has turned
down. It is a mildly bullish indicator that the market closed over the pivot
swing number. The near-term upside target is at 95.70. The next area of
resistance
is around 94.90 and 95.70, while 1st support hits today at 93.25 and below
there
at 92.35.

***** NY SOFTS COMPLEX TECHNICAL STATISTICS
CALCULATIONS BASED ON PREVIOUS DAY SESSION CLOSES
DATA SOURCES CAN & DO PRODUCE BAD TICKS. VERIFY BEFORE USE.
14 DAY 14 DAY
9 DAY 14 DAY SLOW SLOW 20 DAY 40 DAY 60 DAY
CLOSE RSI RSI STOCH D STOCH K M AVG M AVG M AVG
SOFTS MARKETS COMPLEX
SUN5 8.43 40.96 39.63 24.02 31.37 8.61 8.87 9.00
CTN5 54.44 54.66 55.30 59.48 63.60 54.20 53.42 51.34
CCN5 1538 35.28 37.57 16.20 19.57 1577.20 1669.40 1643.83
OJK5 94.05 45.86 46.80 23.70 26.94 96.11 95.88 92.97
CFN5 122.75 51.71 49.36 29.49 42.28 122.53 127.09 123.37
MAK5 13.94 36.81 41.21 20.33 15.49 14.41 14.44 14.24

DAILY SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
BASED ON DAY SESSION CLS - VERIFY BEFORE USE (DATA SUBJECT TO ERRORS)
SUPRT 2 SUPRT 1 PIVOT RESIST 1 RESIST 2
SOFTS MARKETS COMPLEX
SUN5 SUGAR 8.37 8.39 8.44 8.45 8.50
CTN5 COTTON 53.03 53.80 54.31 55.07 55.59
CCN5 COCOA 1521 1527 1542 1548 1563
OJK5 OJ 92.30 93.20 94.00 94.90 95.70
CFN5 COFFEE 119.95 121.00 123.40 124.45 126.85
MAK5 MILK 13.85 13.89 13.94 13.98 14.03


--------------------------------------------
***This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable
and accurate as of the date of this publication, but no independent
verification has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or
completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without
notice. This report should not be construed as a request to engage in any
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commodity option thereon. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or
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consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of their
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