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FROSTY FUTURES
SEPTEMBER 15, 2005 INDICES After failing just below key resistance levels the stock indices are backtracking. Today’s (Thursday) consolidation trade may be an indication of a retest of the highs is forthcoming. A failure to close above the 9-day MA’s on the DOW, S&P and COMP should indicate a retest of key support areas. The COMP is the weakest of the three major indices. LONGBOND Support has failed and the long bond is making new lows. A close on the Dec contract below 11515 should mean a test of 11420 is right around the corner. It will take a reversal and close back above 11611 to turn things back up. DOLLAR INDEX The buck charts are in a bullish configuration trading above the 9, 30, 50 and 100-day MA’s. But there is an anomaly here and in the metals pits. METALS Gold and silver are both trading above break-out points. This is the anomaly I mention above. The dollar is higher, yet so are gold and silver. It is not likely this will last for long, but since my bias, as posted here repeatedly, is for the dollar to sink and gold to rally that’s the way I am playing it. Odds favor a retest of the breakout points so before too much money is committed, be quick to protect profits if those levels fail. CATTLE Both live contracts and feeder contracts are into areas of resistance. Longs should be very quick to act on signs of reversals, but be aware that there remains the possibility of a blow-off top. ENERGY Key support for crude on the continuation charts is 6221. A possible head and shoulders top may be developing measuring 8-dollars from neckline to top of head. This implies that if that neckline is broken price may slip down to 5421. Perhaps a more realistic pattern may be about a 6-dollar trading range with the center being in area between 6350-6400. So resistance maybe found around 6700-6800 and support around 6000, or so. Nat gas is in consolidation above a big gap on the daily charts. SOFTS Dec cocoa should find support at 1391. Locals may go down to sweep stops out of the way before a rebound or recovery is initiated. Coffee should find support between 8900 and 8775,if the trend lower continues. Sugar continues in its narrow, grinding higher price trend. Oct cotton should find support near 47 and resistance near 50 to fill the gap left on the way down last week. OJ contracts are too low to sell going into the fall/winter season. There should be a freeze premium coming into the Jan contract very soon. A target is 105, at least. And Lumber….The pattern is in “globs.” This reflects thin trade, even with price pegged to go higher “at some point.” I remain of the opinion that the best way for most people to trade this is to utilize the options, but I also recognize that the locals are very hard to deal with. GRAINS Beans and corn continue to slip lower, but price is getting oversold. Wheat remains the strongest of the three but is being pulled lower by the weight of the others. The trend in price for wheat remains higher, but volatility may increase as beans and corn find their lows. CONTACT ME: williamfrost@comcast.net or call 615 331 8567. TO SUBSCRIBE: www.frostyfutures.com. Trading futures is for individuals willing to assume greater risk for the opportunity of greater rewards. Only speculative capital should be used. Past performance is no assurance of future profits. Information contained herein is believed reliable but original sources of data have not been independently verified therefore is not guaranteed. Ideas and suggestions are just that. Nothing herein should be construed to be a solicitation to trade futures or options. Hedgers should have a defined plan Please pass this along to friends or other traders. |